Green Party Leader Elizabeth May arrives with her husband John Kidder before announcing the official launch of the Green Party of Canada election campaign as she’s joined by green candidates during a news conference at the Delta Hotels Victoria Ocean Pointe Resort in Victoria on Wednesday, September 11, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

Spotlight on B.C.: How will the province affect the federal election?

Black Press Media presents a four-part series looking into how B.C. will affect the national outcome

By Bruce Cameron

The 2019 federal election is officially underway, with major party leaders crisscrossing the country to campaign in the lead up to Voting Day on Oct. 21.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer began this week in the vote-rich regions of Quebec and Ontario. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh started off in London, Ont. And Green Party Leader Elizabeth May chose her riding of Saanich–Gulf Islands in B.C., where she expects to make historic gains.

It’s hard to imagine another Liberal Party of Canada leader from the past 30 years who would kick off an election campaign in B.C. But that’s what Justin Trudeau did, in the riding of Vancouver Kingsway, held by three-term NDP stalwart Don Davies.

Why make that move? Recent polling trends suggest NDP voters are moving away from the party. If Trudeau can capture once-safe NDP seats such as Vancouver Kingsway, campaign strategists believe he can hold onto his majority.

How crucial a role will British Columbia play in the ultimate outcome? It’s been said before that B.C. will matter only until the news media make their calls on the winning party before results in the west are even fully counted.

If the polls are to be trusted, however, and that is asking a lot given the recent track record of some pollsters, B.C. may hold the key to the final result.

Some of the questions to be explored in this four-part series on B.C.’s role in the federal election include:

  • Can the Liberals hold on to seats in the Lower Mainland despite a drop in the polls from 2015?
  • Can the Conservatives re-capture interior and suburban B.C. voters who used to deliver safe Conservative seats?
  • Can the NDP avoid a collapse of its voter base in B.C. to Greens and Liberals?
  • Will Vancouver Island deliver a Green Party breakthrough?

READ MORE: Trudeau election plane damaged in Victoria after media bus drives under wing

In most predictive models, which combine multiple poll results with historic voting patterns, B.C.’s 42 seats could prove the decisive factor in determining which party forms government.

Consider the outcome in 2015, when all four major parties captured seats.

Trudeau’s ability to connect with people in the densely populated ridings in the Lower Mainland gave the Liberals 17 seats.

The NDP held on to 14 ridings, despite the drop in total votes across the country, as many supporters defected to the Liberals in a push to defeat then-Conservative leader Stephen Harper.

Many previous Conservative strongholds in B.C.’s central and interior regions fell to the New Democrats, leaving Harper’s party with just 10 seats in the province.

But that was four years ago, and the Tories are gunning for a rebound.

Hope are high for other parties too.

RELATED: What role will feminism play in the federal election?

The Liberals must keep their progressive foothold in diverse urban and suburban ridings around Greater Vancouver and fend off independent Vancouver Granville candidate Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former Liberal cabinet minister ousted from caucus in the SNC-Lavalin affair.

The Greens, who have the most to gain from the recent drop in NDP support, raise the prospect of a possible Green sweep in southern Vancouver Island.

A handful of ridings will give clues as to how the campaign is unfolding in B.C.:

  • Interior: Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo and Kootenay–Columbia
  • Lower Mainland: Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge and Cloverdale–Langley City
  • Vancouver: North Vancouver, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Kingsway and Burnaby North–Seymour
  • Vancouver Island: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke and Courtenay–Alberni

ALSO READ: Should voting be mandatory in federal elections?

Get ready for the spotlight, B.C., as national attention shifts to the West on the campaign trail.

Federal Seats by Party in BC 2008-2015
Infogram

Bruce Cameron, Black Press Media’s polling analyst, is the founder of Return On Insight

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Comments are closed

Just Posted

Interior Health will not expand Police and Crisis Team

Southeast Division Chief Superintendent Brad Haugli asked IH to expand the program

Back in Time

Historical Perspective

High water and flooding hits Clearwater

Potential for roadblock on Clearwater Valley Road due to potential washouts

Tk’emlups, Simpcw First Nations chiefs call on Tiny House Warriors to leave Blue River protest camp

“The Tiny House Warriors are not from Simpcw, nor are they our guests in our territory.”

TOTA recognized as Safe Travel Destination

Announcement confirms successful effort by communities to follow new health guidelines

13 new B.C. COVID-19 cases, Langley Lodge outbreak ends

Health care outbreaks down to four, 162 cases active

Alberta health minister orders review into response after noose found in hospital in 2016

A piece of rope tied into a noose was found taped to the door of an operating room at the Grande Prairie Hospital in 2016

B.C.’s major rivers surge, sparking flood warnings

A persistent low pressure system over Alberta has led to several days of heavy rain

B.C.’s Indigenous rights law faces 2020 implementation deadline

Pipeline projects carry on as B.C. works on UN goals

‘Mind boggling’: B.C. man $1 million richer after winning Lotto 6/49 a second time

David O’Brien hopes to use his winnings to travel and of course keep playing the lottery

B.C. teacher loses licence after sexual relationships with two recently-graduated students

The teacher won’t be allowed to apply for a teaching certificate until 2035

Lower Mainland teacher facing child pornography charges

Elazar Reshef, 52, has worked in the Delta School District

All community COVID-19 outbreaks declared over in B.C.

Abbotsford manufacturer cleared by Dr. Bonnie Henry

Most Read